Tropical cyclone Outlook for Vanuatu for 2012/13 season

MEDIA RELEASE, Friday, 12th November 2012
Tropical cyclone Outlook for Vanuatu for 2012/13 season
The Department of Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazard Department (VMGD)
releases its tropical cyclone outlook for the 2012 -2013 tropical cyclone season for
Vanuatu region following the release of the regional tropical cyclone outlook. This is
to fulfill its obligation under the government where it holds the responsibility as the
only scientific institution in the country that is mandated by the government to
provide such information and people should take heed of such information and
warnings seriously.
With the 2012-2013 tropical cyclone seasons underway, the Pacific region is forecast
to have 9 to 12 named tropical cyclones from November 2012 – April 2013 which is
within the historical annual average of ten events. Most countries in the west of
International Date Line are likely to experience close to normal or slightly above
normal activity than countries east of the Date Line because of the ENSO neutral
conditions that currently exist the Pacific region. Though located in the western side
of the Date Line, Vanuatu should be recognized that despite different ENSO phases, it
is in a region where tropical cyclone numbers do not differ much and researches have
established that it remains the hotspot of tropical cyclone activity in the region.
With the ENSO neutral conditions exist in the Equatorial Pacific region and forecast
to remain until early 2013, Vanuatu is likely to experience close to normal or slightly
above normal tropical cyclone during this season with two to four cyclones interacting
with the country. It is also forecast to have at least two tropical cyclone (category 3 or
higher) could occur anywhere across the southwest Pacific during the season with
wind speed of at least 64 knots or 118 km/h. It is also expected that there will be
increased activity to the west of the dateline as the season progress. In Vanuatu,
tropical cyclone activities is at its peak during the months of December to February
but highest in January. Since 1969-70 until 2009-2010 seasons, Vanuatu experienced
116 cyclones that have passed 500km radius of Port Vila.
Each year Vanuatu and New Caledonia experience the greatest cyclone activity in the
region with at least 3-4 cyclones passing close to the countries. Therefore the people
living in Vanuatu should remain vigilant at all times during this cyclone season.
Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazards Department (VMGD) will continue to
carefully monitor the cyclone season with daily tropical cyclone outlook from
Forecasting section. Information will be made available through our website
(www.meteo.gov.vu) and widely circulated through the monthly Vanuatu Climate
Update bulletins.
For specific planning advice, should contact the Department of Vanuatu Meteorology
and Geo-Hazards.
Further information:
Jotham NAPAT, Director, Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department
VMGD), 24686