Vanuatu Climate Update- May 2013

Vanuatu climate update

General lukluk (tropical pacific i stap long neutral phase)

Ol indicators blong ENSO oli stap
long neutral range since mid-2012
mo situation ia i likely blong
continue olsem throughout long tri
manis we i stap kam.
 

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).
 

Long las tu wiks blong Mei, SOI i bin
go antap after we hemi drop plante
long earli long manis blong Mei.
Latest 30 dei value blong SOI hemi
+1.6
 

Wind
 

Ol trade wins oli weak lelbet long
western tropical Pacific long las
tu wiks.
 

Cloudiness
 

Ol cloud kolosap long dateline i
remain closap long average long
tufala wiks we i pas.
 

Sea surface Temperature (SST)
 

Ol temperature blong solwota
long manis blong April i soem se
i gat ol wota we i stap klosap
long average long tropical
Pacific. I gat sam wota we i kolkol
long coast blong saot America
be ol wom wota oli stap long
most long maritime continent
region. Ol wota long eastern
Pacific hemi mo kolkol taem yumi
comparem long manis blong April be ol
nara ples ia stap semak nomo. I gat sam
wom wota we oli 1 degree womer oli stap
long Vanuatu (luk lo map antap).
 

Model Forecast

 

Ol climate models we Vanuatu
Meteorology mo Geohazards Department
hemi stap usum oli soem se bae yumi stap
lo neutral range kasem nekis tri manis we
i stap kam. Neutral range hemi mean se
bae yumi karem normal weather blo yumi.
 

Past renfol

 

Ol renfol analysis long manis blong April 2013
long Vanuatu hemi soem se renfol hemi normal
long Lamap mo above normal long Sola, Pekoa,
Bauerfield, Port Vila, Whitegrass mo Aneityum.
Long las tri manis (February - April 2013), renfol
we i foldaon long ol manis ia hemi bitim normal
long Sola, Pekoa, Lamap mo Whitegrass. Below
normal renfol oli recordem long Bauerfield, Port
Vila mo Aneityum stations.
Ol renfol we i foldaon long trifala manis we i pas,
hemi ‘consistent’ wetem wanem yumi forecastem
long stations blong Sola mo Bauerfield. Forecast
hemi ‘near consistent’ long Pekoa, Port Vila mo
Whitegrass mo hemi ‘inconsistent long Aneityum
wetem lamap.
 

Renfol we bae i kam

 

SCOPIC predictions long manis blo June kasem August
2013 ( usim SST 1 & 9) long Vanuatu
Northern Region:: Long ol provinces blong yumi long
Not ( Torba, Sanma, Penama mo Malampa) forecast
hemi bias iko long renfol we i normal long tri manis
we i stap kam long Sola, Pekoa wetem Lamap.
(Confidence: Moderate kasem high).
Southern Region: Long ol provinces blong yumi long
saot (Shefa mo Tafea) forecast hemi bias iko long
renfol we i above long normal long Bauerfield, Port
Vila mo Whitegrass. Renfol we i below long normal bae
i foldaon long Aneityum (Confidence: Very low kasem
low)
 

ENSO and MJO Watch
Saeklon sisen blong yumi i finis mo yumi bin gat 2
saeklon we i pas long eria blong yumi. Hemia i folem
stret wanem yumi long VMGD yumi forecastem se bae
yumi shud gat 2-4 saeklon. Hemi i soem se ol tecnik
we yumi stap usum blong mekem prediksen i stap kam
moa gud mo yumi ol man yumi shud act long ol
infomesen we i stap kam aot long ofis blong Meteo.
Kontinu blong kasem moa infomesen long VMGD long
wanem kaen ren yumi shud karem long nekis tri
manis. Informesen olsem i stap kamaot long evri
manis mo i save helpem yu blong mekem decisen.