Tropical cyclone Outlook

MEDIA RELEASE, Friday, 25th October 2013
Tropical cyclone Outlook for Vanuatu for 2013/14 Season
The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazard Department (VMGD) releases its tropical
cyclone outlook for the 2013-2014 Tropical Cyclone Season for Vanuatu’s Area (12S
to 23° S and 160° E to 175° E) following the release of the regional tropical cyclone
outlook.
With the 2013-2014 Tropical Cyclone Season approaching (1st November 2013), the
Pacific region is forecast to have 8 to 12 named tropical cyclones from November
2013 to April 2014. Tropical cyclone activity between Vanuatu and New Caledonia as
well as east of the International Date Line are likely to experience close to normal or
below normal activity over the whole of the season while countries west of dateline
are likely to experience close to normal activity because of ENSO neutral conditions.
Though located in the western side of the Date Line and despite different ENSO
phases, Vanuatu is located in an area where tropical cyclone numbers do not differ
much and researches have established that it remains the hotspot of tropical cyclone
activity in the region.
With the ENSO neutral conditions existing in the Equatorial Pacific region and is
forecast to remain until end of the 2013-14 TC season, Vanuatu is likely to experience
between two to four cyclones within Vanuatu’s Area It should also be recognized
that increased activity in general is expected as the TC season progresses. The
forecast also indicate that there will be at least one or more severe tropical cyclone
(category 3 or higher) to occur anywhere across the southwest Pacific during the
season. In Vanuatu, tropical cyclone activity is at its peak during the months of
December to February but highest in January. From 1969-70 to 2009-2010 seasons,
Vanuatu experienced 116 cyclones that have passed 500km radius of Port Vila.
Each year Vanuatu and New Caledonia experience the greatest cyclone activity in the
region with at least 2-3 cyclones passing close to the countries. Therefore people
living in Vanuatu should remain vigilant at all times during this cyclone season incase
conditions in the equatorial Pacific changes.
Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazards Department (VMGD) will continue to
carefully monitor the cyclone season with daily five Day Tropical Cyclone Outlook
from the Forecasting Division. Information will be made available through our
website (www.meteo.gov.vu) and widely circulated through the monthly Vanuatu
Climate Update bulletins.
For specific planning advice, should contact the Department of Vanuatu Meteorology
and Geo-Hazards.
Further information:
David GIBSON, Acting Director, Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards
Department VMGD), 24686