New Oxfam Report: CC & Food Security

FOOD PRICES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE
Increased hunger is likely to be one of climate change’s most savage impacts on
humanity. Greenhouse gas emissions are driving temperature increases, shifting
rainfall patterns, and making extreme weather events more likely – like the 2012
drought in the US Midwest – with devastating consequences for agricultural
production. Against a backdrop of rising populations and changing diets which
will see global food production struggle to keep pace with increasing demand,
the food security outlook in a future of unchecked climate change is bleak.
The impact of climate change on food production can already be seen, and will
worsen as climate change gathers pace.
1
First, slow-onset changes in mean
temperatures and precipitation patterns are putting downward pressure on
average global yields.
2
Added to this are crop losses resulting from more
frequent and intense extreme weather events.
3
Research to date has focused almost exclusively on the first impact, modelling
the extent of long-run average price rises in the absence of price volatility
caused by extreme weather. This tells only half the story, but the assessments
are nevertheless alarming. Oxfam-commissioned research suggests that the
average price of staple foods such as maize could more than double in the next
20 years compared with 2010 trend prices – with up to half of the increase due
to changes in average temperatures and rainfall patterns.
4
More frequent and extreme weather events will compound things further,
creating shortages, destabilizing markets, and precipitating food price spikes
which will be felt on top of the projected structural price rises.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD: http://www.oxfamamerica.org/files/Extreme-Weather-Extreme-Prices.pdf