Cyclone season is here: Vanuatu to have 2-6 tropical cyclones for 2015/16 season
‘Vanuatu is expected to have 2 to 6 Tropical Cyclones (TC) in 2015/2016 cyclone season. The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazard Department (VMGD) appeals to the general public to prepare for this season. Possible impacts coupled with current El Niño event can have adverse impacts on the livelihood of our people’ said David Gibson, Director VMGD.
Vanuatu is located in the hotspot of tropical cyclone activity in the region. Each year Vanuatu and New Caledonia experience the greatest cyclone activity with at least 2-3 cyclones passing close to the countries. The Pacific region is forecast to have 11-13 named tropical cyclones from November 2015 to April 2016. TC activity for Vanuatu is anticipated to be above average this season which means more than two events. ‘The way this season is shaping up, it looks like we could expect increased cyclone activity during the early (November 2015 to January 2016) and late months (February to April 2016)’ said Philip Malsale, Manager Climate Division, VMGD.
The current El Niño conditions are forecast to last until early 2016. ‘In the past when we’ve had these kind of conditions in Vanuatu, we’ve seen a higher probability of experiencing Category 3 cyclones or above such as Fran and Susan. Communities should make sure that they are well prepared by taking appropriate action and stay up to date with the latest information from VMGD. Therefore, all communities should remain alert and well prepared for severe events as we are forecasting to have at least one category 3 or above tropical cyclone’ said Mr. Malsale.
In Vanuatu, tropical cyclone activity is at its peak during the months of December to February but highest in January. From 1969/70 to 2009/2010 seasons, Vanuatu experienced 116 cyclones that have passed within a 500km of Port Vila. The conditions forecasted for the upcoming tropical cyclone season are similar to the seasons of 1972/1973: 1982/83; 1987/88; 1991/92 and 1997/98. With the El Niño event, Sea surface temperatures have increased in the Pacific region therefore can influence the occurrence of TC events outside of the normal season (that is before and/or after the cyclone season). ‘It is also important to note that during El Niño events, there is high possibility of tropical cyclones to follow tracks that maneuver around the islands and last longer. This will mean that an event can cause a lot of damage if it survive in an area for a long time. The same impact if a severe event transverse an island for a shorter period’ said Philip Malsale, Climate Division Manager.
Vanuatu is in the hotspot of TC genesis area and ‘due to the elevated tropical cyclone risks for the upcoming season, people living in Vanuatu should remain vigilant at all times. People are advised to take heed of this information, and undertake preparedness actions for this season knowing that any tropical cyclone impact coupled with the current El Niño will have great effect on the socio-economic livelihood of people living in Vanuatu’ said David Gibson, Director VMGD.
Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazards Department (VMGD) will continue to monitor the cyclone season with daily five day Tropical Cyclone Outlook from the Weather forecast Division. Information can be accessible through VMGD website (www.meteo.gov.vu), or follow us on Facebook. Tropical cyclone information is also included in the monthly Vanuatu Climate Update bulletin. SMS will be disseminated during any event while people are advice to listen to all radio station at all times. For specific planning advice, contact the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department on telephone 24686 / 22932.
Further information:
David GIBSON, Director, Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department VMGD).
‘Vanuatu is expected to have 2 to 6 Tropical Cyclones (TC) in 2015/2016 cyclone season. The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazard Department (VMGD) appeals to the general public to prepare for this season. Possible impacts coupled with current El Niño event can have adverse impacts on the livelihood of our people’ said David Gibson, Director VMGD.
Vanuatu is located in the hotspot of tropical cyclone activity in the region. Each year Vanuatu and New Caledonia experience the greatest cyclone activity with at least 2-3 cyclones passing close to the countries. The Pacific region is forecast to have 11-13 named tropical cyclones from November 2015 to April 2016. TC activity for Vanuatu is anticipated to be above average this season which means more than two events. ‘The way this season is shaping up, it looks like we could expect increased cyclone activity during the early (November 2015 to January 2016) and late months (February to April 2016)’ said Philip Malsale, Manager Climate Division, VMGD.
The current El Niño conditions are forecast to last until early 2016. ‘In the past when we’ve had these kind of conditions in Vanuatu, we’ve seen a higher probability of experiencing Category 3 cyclones or above such as Fran and Susan. Communities should make sure that they are well prepared by taking appropriate action and stay up to date with the latest information from VMGD. Therefore, all communities should remain alert and well prepared for severe events as we are forecasting to have at least one category 3 or above tropical cyclone’ said Mr. Malsale.
In Vanuatu, tropical cyclone activity is at its peak during the months of December to February but highest in January. From 1969/70 to 2009/2010 seasons, Vanuatu experienced 116 cyclones that have passed within a 500km of Port Vila. The conditions forecasted for the upcoming tropical cyclone season are similar to the seasons of 1972/1973: 1982/83; 1987/88; 1991/92 and 1997/98. With the El Niño event, Sea surface temperatures have increased in the Pacific region therefore can influence the occurrence of TC events outside of the normal season (that is before and/or after the cyclone season). ‘It is also important to note that during El Niño events, there is high possibility of tropical cyclones to follow tracks that maneuver around the islands and last longer. This will mean that an event can cause a lot of damage if it survive in an area for a long time. The same impact if a severe event transverse an island for a shorter period’ said Philip Malsale, Climate Division Manager.
Vanuatu is in the hotspot of TC genesis area and ‘due to the elevated tropical cyclone risks for the upcoming season, people living in Vanuatu should remain vigilant at all times. People are advised to take heed of this information, and undertake preparedness actions for this season knowing that any tropical cyclone impact coupled with the current El Niño will have great effect on the socio-economic livelihood of people living in Vanuatu’ said David Gibson, Director VMGD.
Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazards Department (VMGD) will continue to monitor the cyclone season with daily five day Tropical Cyclone Outlook from the Weather forecast Division. Information can be accessible through VMGD website (www.meteo.gov.vu), or follow us on Facebook. Tropical cyclone information is also included in the monthly Vanuatu Climate Update bulletin. SMS will be disseminated during any event while people are advice to listen to all radio station at all times. For specific planning advice, contact the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department on telephone 24686 / 22932.
Further information:
David GIBSON, Director, Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department VMGD).
